Current State Assessment
● What We Know High Confidence
Persona Ranking
| Persona | CTR | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Security | 5.08% | Scale |
| BTC Maxi | 4.19% | Scale |
| Beginner | 3.60% | Scale |
| Privacy | 2.83% | Iterate |
| CompSwitch | 2.11% | Iterate |
Concept Ranking
| Concept | CTR | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Freeze | 3.96% | Scale |
| Hold | 3.66% | Scale |
| Night | 3.15% | Reduce |
| Control | 2.93% | Keep for Beginners |
Standout Combinations
Beginner Control-Beginner 7.15% outlier worth protecting
Security Freeze-Security 6.84% $0.006 CPC efficiency champion
BTC Maxi Hold-BTCMaxi 4.93% 102K impr, proven at scale
● What We Don't Know Low Confidence
- Conversion data is thin. Only 4 conversions across all persona tests ($620 spend). CTR signals intent, but we need more volume to measure conversion rates.
- Landing page impact is unmeasured. Are persona ads sending traffic to persona-matched landing pages? The CTR-to-conversion gap may be a landing page problem, not an ad problem.
- Platform transferability is unknown. These results are from Meta only. Will the same personas and concepts work on Google, Twitter/X, Reddit, or YouTube?
- Audience size ceilings are unclear. Security and BTC Maxi perform best, but are those audiences large enough to scale spend 5–10x without frequency saturation?
Phase Timeline — 12 Weeks
Scale Winners
Weeks 1–2
$5,600
Kill & Iterate
Weeks 3–4
$4,800
New Concepts
Weeks 5–8
$8,000
Platform Expansion
Weeks 8–12
$12,000
Spanish Vertical
Weeks 8–12
$8,400
1
Phase 1: Scale Winners — Weeks 1–2
Put real budget behind validated performers before signal decays. Reallocate 30% of traditional budget ($2,800/week) into persona tests.
1
Increase Budget for Top Combinations
| Ad | Persona | Current | New Budget | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control-Beginner | Beginner | $0.85/day | $80/day | Highest CTR (7.15%), prove conversion potential |
| Freeze-Security | Security | $0.42/day | $60/day | Best efficiency (6.84% CTR, $0.006 CPC) |
| Hold-BTCMaxi | BTC Maxi | $1.48/day | $80/day | Proven at scale (102K impressions) |
| Freeze-CompSwitch | CompSwitch | $0.24/day | $40/day | Best CompSwitch ad (4.36% CTR) |
| Control-BTCMaxi | BTC Maxi | $0.74/day | $40/day | Strong CTR (4.76%) |
2
Reduce Spend on Underperformers
| Ad | CTR | CPC | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold-Privacy | 1.94% | $0.055 | Pause Worst performer across all 20 ads |
| Night-CompSwitch | 1.99% | $0.034 | Pause |
| Control-CompSwitch | 1.68% | $0.029 | $5/day Has 1 conversion, worth watching |
| Night-Privacy | 2.74% | $0.022 | $5/day |
3
Match Landing Pages to Persona Ads
Update ad destination URLs before increasing budget. If landing pages don't match ad messaging, scaling spend will just scale waste.
| Persona | Currently Landing | Should Land On |
|---|---|---|
| Beginner | index.html (generic) | beginners.html |
| Security | index.html (generic) | security.html |
| BTC Maxi | index.html (generic) | bitcoin-only.html |
| CompSwitch | index.html (generic) | compare.html |
| Privacy | index.html (generic) | air-gapped.html |
Success Criteria — Phase 1
- Top 5 ads maintain CTR within 20% of current performance at 3x spend
- At least 10 conversions from persona ads (enough to start measuring CPA)
- Landing page views → conversion rate measurable per persona
2
Phase 2: Kill & Iterate — Weeks 3–4
Free up budget and creative resources by cutting what's not working. Generate new hypotheses for bottom personas.
Kill List
~$145 recovered
| Ad | CTR | CPC | Spend | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold-Privacy | 1.94% | $0.055 | $51.74 | Kill Worst CTR, worst CPC |
| Control-CompSwitch | 1.68% | $0.029 | $71.16 | Kill Highest spend among underperformers |
| Night-CompSwitch | 1.99% | $0.034 | $22.39 | Kill No conversions, below threshold |
Night Concept: Demote to Test-Only
Night underperforms Freeze and Hold across every persona. But it's not uniformly bad — Night-Security (5.01%) and Night-Beginner (3.51%) are decent. The concept has ceiling issues, not floor issues. Action: Stop running Night as a primary concept. Keep it only for Security persona where it still performs above 5%.
● New Privacy Hypotheses
— Current problem: ads are too feature-listy. Spec sheets don't trigger emotions.
Privacy-A — Fear-based
"They know you own Bitcoin. That's the problem."
Target the Ledger data breach consequence — physical threats to hardware wallet owners whose purchase records were exposed.
Privacy-B — Contrast
"Your wallet provider doesn't need to know your name."
Jade Plus requires no account. Ledger requires account + has had data breaches. Let the comparison speak for itself.
Privacy-C — Normalize
"Signing transactions offline isn't paranoia. It's practice."
Reframe air-gap from niche security theater to rational operational security. Make the behavior feel normal.
● New CompSwitch Hypotheses
— Current problem: negative-only messaging underperforms. Pair criticism with a positive alternative.
CompSwitch-A — Empowerment
"You deserve a wallet that respects your intelligence."
Validate their frustration without naming names. Empowerment angle instead of competitor bashing.
CompSwitch-B — Future-focused
"Open code. No data collection. What your last wallet should have been."
Describe the ideal, imply the comparison. Forward-looking, not backward-looking.
CompSwitch-C — Migration
"Same seed phrase. Better wallet."
Address migration friction directly. "You don't lose anything by switching." Extremely direct.
Success Criteria — Phase 2
- Privacy new tests achieve >3.5% CTR (above current 2.83% average)
- CompSwitch new tests achieve >3.0% CTR (above current 2.11% average)
- Clear winning hypothesis emerges for each underperforming persona
3
Phase 3: New Concept Testing — Weeks 5–8
Expand beyond the 4 current concepts. Test fundamentally different creative angles informed by what we've learned.
Consequence / Risk
Loss aversion is a stronger motivator than gain seeking. Test negative-outcome framing.
Beginner
"Coinbase holds your Bitcoin. Coinbase can freeze your Bitcoin."
That's not ownership. Jade Plus is.
Security
"Your wallet's firmware was last audited by... nobody you know."
Jade Plus firmware is audited by everyone. 100% open-source.
CompSwitch
"Your Ledger knows your name, address, and email. Jade Plus doesn't."
No account. No database. Nothing to breach.
Simplicity / Demystification
Control-Beginner (7.15% CTR) proved "easier than you think" works. Push this angle harder.
Beginner
"Self-custody sounds intimidating. It's not. It's a USB cable."
Plug in. Follow the screen. Your Bitcoin is yours. Done.
Beginner
"You can protect your Bitcoin during a commercial break."
Jade Plus setup: unbox, connect, follow the screen. That's it.
Privacy
"Air-gapped signing sounds extreme. It's just scanning a QR code."
No USB connection. No internet. Just your phone camera and the Jade Plus screen.
Specificity / Numbers
Concrete numbers build credibility. "47,000 commits" beats "lots of code review." Test specificity vs emotion.
Security
"3,968 files. 47,000+ commits. Zero closed-source components."
Jade Plus. The most auditable hardware wallet ever built.
BTC Maxi
"Built by a team with 10+ years of Bitcoin infrastructure."
Blockstream: Liquid Network. Bitcoin satellites. And now, Jade Plus.
CompSwitch
"Ledger: 5 data breaches since 2020. Jade Plus: 0. Ever."
Open-source. No customer database. Nothing to hack.
4
Phase 4: Platform Expansion — Weeks 8–12
Take winning persona × concept combinations to new platforms.
Google Search
High intent — people actively searching for hardware wallets
CompSwitch
Beginner
Search ads targeting "best hardware wallet 2026", "ledger alternative", "bitcoin cold storage". Persona targeting through keyword intent rather than audience targeting.
Twitter / X
Strong Bitcoin community presence
BTC Maxi
Security
Promoted tweets, thread ads. Test organic threads first (free), promote winners. BTC Maxi language needs to feel native to Bitcoin Twitter.
Reddit
Deep engagement, community trust
Security
BTC Maxi
Beginner
Privacy
CompSwitch
First-person narrative format outperforms branded ads. Comments section IS the conversion — link to landing page in the post body.
YouTube
Visual walkthrough format, long consideration cycle
Beginner
CompSwitch
60-second pre-roll showing actual setup for Beginners. 3-minute comparison walkthrough for Security. Educational content that happens to feature Jade Plus.
5
Phase 5: Spanish Language Vertical — Weeks 8–12
5.08x ROAS
Jan 9–13 PMax test — best-performing segment in any test we've run
7.08% CTR
Spanish language ads — a fundamentally underserved market
This isn't a translation project. 5.08x ROAS with 7.08% CTR suggests a fundamentally underserved market. Most hardware wallet competitors have zero meaningful Spanish-language presence. This is a first-mover opportunity.
1
Translate top 5 persona ads into Spanish (culturally adapted, not word-for-word)
2
Build a Spanish-language landing page (new page in jade-plus-landing/)
3
Target LATAM markets: Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Brazil (Portuguese variant)
4
Test persona relevance: Do the same 5 personas apply in LATAM? (Hypothesis: Beginner larger, BTC Maxi smaller)
5
Budget: Start at $50/day, scale based on ROAS maintenance
Budget Summary
| Phase | Duration | Weekly Budget | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1: Scale Winners | 2 weeks | $2,800 | $5,600 |
| Phase 2: Kill & Iterate | 2 weeks | $2,400 | $4,800 |
| Phase 3: New Concepts | 4 weeks | $2,000 | $8,000 |
| Phase 4: Platform Expansion | 4 weeks | $3,000 | $12,000 |
| Phase 5: Spanish Vertical | 4 weeks | $2,100 | $8,400 |
Total — 12 Weeks
$38,800
Testing Infrastructure Requirements
1
UTM parameter discipline — Every ad needs unique UTM tags to track persona → landing page → conversion
2
Persona-specific landing pages — Live and optimized BEFORE scaling spend (Phase 1 blocker)
3
Conversion tracking — Meta pixel + GA4 events on all landing pages and checkout
4
Reporting cadence — Weekly review. Pull data Monday, decisions Wednesday, implement Friday.
5
Creative production pipeline — Phase 3 concepts require new visuals. Queue design in Week 3 for Week 5 launch.
Decision Framework
At each phase gate, answer three questions:
1
What did we learn?
State the finding in one sentence with supporting data.
2
What do we scale?
>3.5% CTR AND <$0.03 CPC AND measurable conversions.
3
What do we kill?
<2% CTR after $50+ spend. Don't be sentimental.
Red Flags Requiring Immediate Action
CTR drops >30% at higher spend → audience saturation, expand targeting
CPC doubles at scale → competitive pressure or frequency issue
Conversions don't follow CTR → landing page mismatch or audience quality issue
One persona >50% budget with <20% conversions → rebalance immediately